Mike Baillie and The Heinsohn Horizon

Mike Baillie and The Heinsohn Horizon

Mike Baillie is a leading expert in dendrochronology.

Michael G. L. “Mike” Baillie is Professor Emeritus of Palaeoecology at Queen’s University of Belfast, in Northern Ireland.

Baillie is a leading expert in dendrochronology, or dating by means of tree-rings.

In the 1980s, he was instrumental in building a year-by-year chronology of tree-ring growth reaching 7,400 years into the past.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Baillie

Mike Baillie has also discovered life is a learning process.

For example.

In 1992 Mike Baillie thought tree-rings offered “unlimited potential” for reconstructing Environmental Change.

The long oak tree-ring chronologies constructed in Ireland, England and Germany provide the background chronological framework for the archaeology of the past seven millennia in northern Europe.

The chronologies also provide year-by-year records of the response of a biological system to climatic and environmental factors.

There appears to be unlimited potential for the reconstruction of various aspects of past environmental change from tree-ring records.

Dendrochronology and Past Environmental Change
M. G. L. Baillie
Palaeoecology Centre, The Queen’s University, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK
Proceedings of the British Academy, 11, 5-23
http://www.britac.ac.uk/pubs/proc/files/77p005.pdf
Proceedings of the British Academy, Volume 77
New Developments in Archaeological Science
Edited by A M Pollard
Volume published 1992
http://www.britac.ac.uk/pubs/proc/volumes/pba77.html

By 2010 Mike Baillie had learnt Irish Oak Trees only record summer rainfall well and that Oak Trees are acknowledged to be virtually useless as a temperature proxy.

Dr Rob Wilson from the University of St Andrews tree ring laboratory has concurred, stating that ‘oaks were virtually useless as a temperature proxy’.

Accessing Environmental Information Relating to Climate Change:
The Case of Irish Oaks Tree Rings
John Abbot – Jennifer Marohasy
(2010) 22 ELM: Environmental Law & Management
http://www.informath.org/apprise/a3900/b22172.pdf

This week, the Belfast ecologist who collected most of the data, Professor Mike Baillie, described the ruling as “a staggering injustice … We are the ones who trudged miles over bogs and fields carrying chain saws. We prepared the samples and – using quite a lot of expertise and judgment – we measured the ring patterns. Each ring pattern therefore has strong claims to be our copyright. Now, for the price of a stamp, Keenan feels he is entitled to be given all this data.”

Baillie says his data won’t help either way in this argument.

Last year he and his Belfast colleague Ana Garcia-Suarez, published a study showing that Irish oaks record summer rainfall well, but not temperature.

Climate sceptic wins landmark data victory ‘for price of a stamp’
The Guardian – Fred Pearce – 20 April 2010
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/apr/20/climate-sceptic-wins-data-victory

Another learning example.

In 1992 Mike Baillie produced a diagram revealing [roughly] a 200 year gap between the Irish Bog Oaks and the Irish Oak chronologies.

Case 1: the 208 BC event
During the construction of the Belfast 7000 year oak chronology some thousands of sub-fossil oaks were collected from northern Irish bogs.

It proved possible to construct a continuous year-by-year chronology from 5289 BC to 949 BC and from 947 BC to 229 BC (Pilcher et al. 1984).

At 229 BC (197 ± 9 BC estimated death date allowing for missing sapwood) bog oaks cease to be represented in the random collections; what happened?

Dendrochronology And Environmental Change

Dendrochronology and Past Environmental Change
M. G. L. Baillie
Palaeoecology Centre, The Queen’s University, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK
Proceedings of the British Academy, 11, 5-23
http://www.britac.ac.uk/pubs/proc/files/77p005.pdf
Proceedings of the British Academy, Volume 77
New Developments in Archaeological Science
Edited by A M Pollard
Volume published 1992
http://www.britac.ac.uk/pubs/proc/volumes/pba77.html

By 2014 it seems Mike Baillie had learnt how to bridge this gap to his satisfaction.

2014 Chronology
Michael Baillie:
Tree-ring and Radiocarbon Rebuttal of Gunnar’s Phantom Time Hypothesis
http://www.q-mag.org/_media/baillie-dendrochronology-gunnar.pdf
http://www.q-mag.org/the-1st-millennium-a-d-chronology-controversy.html

Bridging The Gap

Heinsohn and The Missing Trees
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/11/17/heinsohn-and-the-missing-trees/

Mike Baillie also demonstrates that life is full of surprises.

For example.

Mike Baillie has developed a Catastrophic Cometary Debris theory.

Upon examining the tree-ring record, Baillie noticed indications of severe environmental downturns around 2354 BC, 1628 BC, 1159 BC, 208 BC, and AD 540.

The evidence suggests that these environmental downturns were wide-ranging catastrophic events; the AD 540 event in particular is attested in tree-ring chronologies from Siberia through Europe and North and South America.

He believes that impacts from cometary debris may account for most of the downturns, especially the AD 540 event.

To provide further support to his cometary debris theory, Dr Baillie has searched the written record and traditions embodied in myths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Baillie

Another surprise.

Mike Baillie references the Greenland GRIP Ice Core ammonium record produced by Fuhrer et al. 1993 as supporting evidence of his Catastrophic Cometary Debris theory when Mayewski et al. 1993 provides an alternative from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core that can be catastrophically cross-matched with well documented [and well dated] events going back to ∼674 AD.

If we go to the Greenland ice cores and look at the ammonium record (Fuhrer et al. 1993) we find that the two highest values in the last two millennia are 46 ppb and 35 ppb ammonium at depths of 238 and 336 meters respectively.

Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused By Comet Debris – M G L Baillie
Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Editors: Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman
Springer – 2007

* * * * * * * * * * * *

A new deep core drilling operation started in 1990 central Greenland and in 1992 reached the bottom at a depth of 3028 m.b. surface.

Taking advantage of recent developments in the analytical technique of chemical trace species, continuous high resolution measurements of H2O2, HCHO, NH4+ and Ca2+ concentrations were performed directly on the ice core in the field.

During the 1991 season all four components were measured simultaneously between 1300 m.b. surface and 2300 m.b. surface, corresponding to the time interval between 8000 and 38,000 years B.P.

In this paper an overview of the results and our first interpretations in terms of climatic changes are given.
Fuhrer Et Al 1993

Continuous measurements of hydrogen peroxide, formaldehyde, calcium and ammonium concentrations along the new grip ice core from summit, Central Greenland
Katrin Fuhrer, Albrecht Neftel, Martin Anklin, Valter Maggi
Atmospheric Environment. Part A. General Topics
Volume 27, Issue 12, August 1993, Pages 1873-1880
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0960168693902927

Mayewski 1995 - Heinsohn Horizon

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity.

We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences.

We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets.

Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as’that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period.

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change
P. A. Mayewski, L. D. Meeker, M. C. Morrison, M. S. Twickler, S. I. Whitlow, K. K. Ferland, D. A. Meese, M. R. Legrand, J. P. Steffensen
Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 98, No D7 : 12,839-12,847, 20 July 1993
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93JD01085/full

Another surprise.

It is difficult to reconcile the claim that AD 1014 and AD 535 have the “two highest values in the last two millennia” [in the ammonium record] with the Mayewski et al. 1993 data.

If we go to the Greenland ice cores and look at the ammonium record (Fuhrer et al. 1993) we find that the two highest values in the last two millennia are 46 ppb and 35 ppb ammonium at depths of 238 and 336 meters respectively.

These depths correspond to calendar years at or close to AD 1014 and AD 539 (see Fig. 5.4).

So, an unusual ammonium layer in the GRIP ice core coincides with records of a corrupted atmosphere.

Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused By Comet Debris – M G L Baillie
Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Editors: Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman
Springer – 2007

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Mayewski 1995 - 1014 Event

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change
P. A. Mayewski, L. D. Meeker, M. C. Morrison, M. S. Twickler, S. I. Whitlow, K. K. Ferland, D. A. Meese, M. R. Legrand, J. P. Steffensen
Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 98, No D7 : 12,839-12,847, 20 July 1993
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93JD01085/full

And another surprise.

The tree-ring record [according to Wikipedia] doesn’t suggest a severe environmental downturn occurred in AD 1014 when the AD 1014 ammonium signal from the Greenland GRIP Ice Core is [claimed to be] the largest in the last two millennia.

Upon examining the tree-ring record, Baillie noticed indications of severe environmental downturns around 2354 BC, 1628 BC, 1159 BC, 208 BC, and AD 540.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Baillie

However, from the point of view of the reliability of some of these ancient records it is hard to improve on the 1014 ammonium signal.

What makes 1014 particularly interesting is that it is listed by Sekanina and Yeomans (1984) as a year when a comet made a relatively close approach of the Earth.
Ammonium Signal In The Greenland Ice
Fig. 5.4. The ammonium record from AD 400 to 1600 derived from the Greenland GRIP ice core (Furher et al. 1993) [Data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado at Boulder, and the WDC-A for Paleoclimatology, National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, Colorado]

Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused By Comet Debris – M G L Baillie
Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Editors: Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman
Springer – 2007

Yet another surprise.

Mike Baillie laments his theorised Catastrophic Cometary Debris event of AD 540 is not recorded “in any thorough way” by mainstream history when it is evident that mainstream historians have fallen into the Academic Abyss after the 930s Heinsohn Horizon.

The AD 540 Symptoms
Tree-ring chronologies from around the world show that we had a global environmental event, involving reduced growth, in the time window 536–545.

Mainstream history does not record the event in any thorough way.

However, accumulation of marginal references, annals and mythology indicates that the events are recorded quite widely in non-conventional ways.

These records hint strongly that a comet god was involved.

Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused By Comet Debris – M G L Baillie
Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Editors: Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman
Springer – 2007

* * * * * * * * * * * *

One of the problems researchers encounter as they work their way back through history towards the Heinsohn Horizon is that trees have an alarming tendency to disappear into the oblivion of the Academic Abyss.

Heinsohn and The Missing Trees
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/07/01/the-heinsohn-horizon-the-academic-abyss/

Working backwards through the mainstream historical narrative we arrive at the Heinsohn Horizon in the 930s where the mainstream narrative falls into The Academic Abyss and degenerates into fiction, fantasy and fabrication for a period of 700 [phantom] years.

The Heinsohn Horizon: The Academic Abyss
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/07/01/the-heinsohn-horizon-the-academic-abyss/

Japanese Cedar 1800 Year Isotopic Record.

Isotopic Tree Thermometers and The Heinsohn Horizon
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/isotopic-tree-thermometers/

Finally, the biggest surprise of them all.

Mike Baillie focusses upon the “narrowest ring events” when the saw-tooth Δ14C record gleaned from the Irish Oak Chronology yields a precise Catastrophic Calendar.

The dates of a series of narrowest ring events (dates where numbers of long-lived oaks showed catastrophically narrow growth rings at the same time) have been identified in a long Irish oak tree-ring chronology (Baillie and Munro 1988).

The dates were christened ‘marker dates’ because they were immediately noted to fall in clusters of information relating to traumatic happenings in widely separated areas around the world.

For example, one of the Irish oak dates was 207 BC .

Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns That Could Have Been Caused By Comet Debris – M G L Baillie
Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Editors: Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman
Springer – 2007

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Catastrophic Irish Oaks

The saw-tooth Δ14C data starts off rationally enough showing a generally declining trend that would be expected if radioactive carbon-14 is [always] slowly decaying.

However, the casual observer is then amazed to discover that during Gunnar Heinsohn’s 700 Phantom Years the radioactive carbon-14 stops decaying.

Furthermore, the casual observer is then spellbound as they watch the Δ14C levels increase throughout the 1st millennium BC.

In fact, the Δ14C level doesn’t stop increasing until about 4500 BC according to the Irish Oak trees.

Dendrochronology: Disastrous Data
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2014/09/06/dendrochronology-disastrous-data/

Irish Oaks Delta14C Catastrophies

A Carbon-14 Chronology
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2014/09/08/a-carbon-14-chronology/

Which just goes show that life is a learning process for everyone.

To whom it may concern.

Those who discuss the’ phantom time’ hypothesis enjoy semantic games with historical documents.

However, scientists have their own approach to issues of chronology.

Michael Baillie: Tree-ring and Radiocarbon Rebuttal of Gunnar’s Phantom Time Hypothesis
http://www.q-mag.org/_media/baillie-dendrochronology-gunnar.pdf
http://www.q-mag.org/the-1st-millennium-a-d-chronology-controversy.html

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Gallery | This entry was posted in Astrophysics, Atmospheric Science, Books, Catastrophism, Dendrochronology, Earth, Glaciology, Greenland, Heinsohn Horizon, History, Radiocarbon Dating, Solar System, The Old Japanese Cedar Tree. Bookmark the permalink.

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