Brexit: Project Fear

BREXIT - Project Fear

Analysing the issues raised by Project Fear produces some surprising insights.

Project Fear warns “a Brexit will increase the risk of Europe descending into war”.

A Brexit will increase the risk of Europe descending into war, David Cameron will warn as he says that Britain will pay a high cost if “we turn our back” on the EU.

The Prime Minister will invoke Sir Winston Churchill and say that the foundation of the European Union has helped bring together countries that have been “at each others throats for decades”.

He will highlight the battles of Trafalgar, Blenheim, Waterloo and the two World Wars as evidence that Britain cannot pretend to be “immune from the consequences” of events in Europe.

David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war
The Telegraph – Steven Swinford – 9 May 2016

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/08/cameron-brexit-will-increase-risk-of-europe-descending-into-war/

But are the politicians and the media fighting the last war?

Politicians, like generals, have a tendency to fight the last war.
John Bolton

Project Fear has lauded Briton’s amazing ability to “track and intercept” a Russian submarine that was travelling on the surface with a tug boat.

Headlines in the British media have hailed a Royal Navy operation to ‘track and intercept’ a Russian submarine off the UK coast – but Moscow says it’s surprised it took so much effort to find what was actually a surfaced sub traveling with a tug boat.

“An up-top sub can’t be missed,” the Russian Defense Ministry noted.

The news created a stir in the UK with some British media giving the impression that the sub was there on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal orders.

“Vladimir Putin has sent an attack submarine into the English Channel – just days before England battle Russia in the Euros,” the Sun said, referring to the upcoming Euro 2016 soccer match between the two nations in France on Saturday.

“Vladimir Putin sends attack submarine into English Channel,” the Daily Mail reported, echoed by Metro’s “Putin sends submarine into English Channel days before England vs Russia at Euro 2016.”

“This shows that the Navy is maintaining a vigilant watch in international and territorial waters to keep Britain safe and protect us from potential threats,” Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said in a press release.

UK media hail Navy’s ‘intercept’ of Russian sub… which was not hiding
RT.com – 8 June 2016

https://www.rt.com/news/345861-british-media-russian-sub/

But is the Empire of Chaos trying to recklessly provoke the next war?

Contrary to Article 44 of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, to which the UK and Russia are both party, the UK has engaged in extensive illegal harassment of a Russian naval submarine engaged in fully lawful transit of the Dover Strait.

A Russian naval vessel en route between the Baltic and Black Seas is fully and specifically entitled under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Articles 37 and 38 to the right of passage through the strait.

This is in addition to the general right of passage through the territorial sea at Article 17.

The Russian navy was in full compliance with the provision at Article 20 that, while in territorial waters, the submarine must be on the surface and displaying its flag, and in compliance with Articles 29 to 32 on warships.

Craig Murray – 9 June 2016
See: https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/06/uk-illegally-harasses-russian-submarine-engaged-lawful-passage-english-channel/#respond

Over 31,000 troops from 24 countries are taking part in NATO’s Anaconda 2016 war drills in Poland – the largest war games in eastern Europe since the Cold War.

Moscow says that the NATO military presence is unjustified.

The Anaconda 2016 NATO military exercise involve 24 NATO and “partner nations,” including the US, the UK, Germany, Canada, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and others.

Moscow calls NATO buildup in E. Europe ‘unjustified’ as largest drills since Cold War kick off – RT.com – 6 June 2016
https://www.rt.com/news/345615-us-nato-drills-poland/

During a visit to Greece intended to repair ties with the EU, Vladimir Putin said that Russia has “no choice” but to target Romania, which has recently opened a NATO missile defense base, and Poland, which plans to do so within two years.

“If yesterday people simply did not know what it means to be in the crosshairs in those areas of Romania, then today we will be forced to carry out certain measures to ensure our security. And it will be the same with Poland,” Putin said during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Athens on Friday.

The Russian President was referring to the Deveselu facility that officially became operational in May after nearly a decade and $800 million of planning and construction.

Putin: Romania ‘in crosshairs’ after opening NATO missile defense base
RT.com – 27 May 2016

https://www.rt.com/news/344642-putin-visit-greece-tsipras/

These are important questions because “we are all in the front line” in the nuclear age.

The first insight is that globalisation and outsourcing coupled with the decline in manufacturing and mining means most European countries [like Britain] cannot independently sustain a protracted conventional war.

In term of conventional warfare Britain’s most sustainable conventional weapon is probably scalding hot [but tasteless American style] Cappuccinos [and even that is debatable].

Britain is still a cappuccino economy

Cappuccino economy

Why Britain is in the wrong type of recovery
The Telegraph – Szu Ping Chan – 13 Dec 2013

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10513061/Why-Britain-is-in-the-wrong-type-of-recovery.html

The second insight is that the ageing of Europe [over the last 100 years] means the local elites in Europe can no longer conscript legions of young, gullible cannon fodder to fight their conventional wars.

Map - Median Age

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

Even in Germany, where the median male age hovers around 45.1 years, the only conventional warfare the local elite could sustain are fights at the bar during Oktoberfest.

Mean Age of the Population in Germany, 1871 to 2014

Mean Age of the Population in Germany, 1871 to 2014
Federal Institute for Population Research
http://www.bib-demografie.de/EN/Facts_Figures/Pop_Balance/Figures/a_02_15_durchschnittsalter_d_ab1871.html

In a global context Europe is more likely to be the battle ground of choice for other countries that can conscript sufficient cannon fodder for a protracted conventional war.

Countries_and_Dependencies_by_Population_in_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

In other words:

British politicians pushing the Project Fear agenda are clearly “fighting the last war”.

Basically, what’s kept the peace in Europe for the last 50 years is an ageing population and the hollowing out of heavy industry.

This doesn’t prevent the local elites in Europe from creating carnage and chaos by collectively bombing less developed nations “back to the stone age”.

Evidence of LeMay’s thinking is that, in his 1965 autobiography (co-written with MacKinlay Kantor) LeMay is quoted as saying his response to North Vietnam would be to demand that “they’ve got to draw in their horns and stop their aggression, or we’re going to bomb them back into the Stone Age. And we would shove them back into the Stone Age with Air power or Naval power—not with ground forces”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_LeMay

The Bush administration threatened to bomb Pakistan “back to the stone age” after the September 11 attacks if the country did not cooperate with America’s war on Afghanistan, it emerged yesterday.

Bush threatened to bomb Pakistan, says Musharraf
The Guardian – Suzanne Goldenberg – 22 September 2006

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/sep/22/pakistan.usa

On 19 March 2011, a multi-state NATO-led coalition began a military intervention in Libya, ostensibly to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973.

From the beginning of the intervention, the initial coalition of Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Norway, Qatar, Spain, UK and US expanded to nineteen states, with newer states mostly enforcing the no-fly zone and naval blockade or providing military logistical assistance.

The effort was initially largely led by France and the United Kingdom, with command shared with the United States.

NATO took control of the arms embargo on 23 March, named Operation Unified Protector.

An attempt to unify the military command of the air campaign (whilst keeping political and strategic control with a small group), first failed over objections by the French, German, and Turkish governments.

On 24 March, NATO agreed to take control of the no-fly zone, while command of targeting ground units remains with coalition forces.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_military_intervention_in_Libya

But it prevents the local elites from embroiling Europe in a protracted conventional war.

This means the Empire of Chaos has to increasingly rely upon [non-European] mercenaries, [non-European] proxies and [non-European] vassal states.

The Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen began in 2015 to influence the outcome of the Yemeni Civil War.

Saudi Arabia, spearheading a coalition of nine Arab states, began carrying out airstrikes in neighbouring Yemen and imposing an aerial and naval blockade on 26 March, heralding a military intervention codenamed Operation Decisive Storm…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabian-led_intervention_in_Yemen

The Syrian opposition, politically represented by the Syrian National Coalition, receives financial, logistical, political and in some cases military support from major Sunni states in the Middle East allied with the U.S., most notably Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.

From early stages of the civil conflict in Syria, major Western countries such as the U.S, France, and the UK provide political, military and logistic support to the opposition as well as rebel groups in Syria that are not designated by them as terrorist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War

However, collectively, the European local elites [with delusions of grandeur] are very capable of dragging Europe into a conventional war via their NATO membership or by invoking the Treaty on European Union which allows them to move towards “substantial military integration”.

Article 42 of the Treaty on European Union provides for substantial military integration within the institutional framework of the union.

Complete integration is an option that requires unanimity in the European Council of heads of state or government.

For now it remains politically gridlocked considering the critical stance of the United Kingdom in particular.

Article 42 does also provide for a permanent structured cooperation between the armed forces of a subset of member states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union

Furthermore, with so many of the local elites in Europe clamouring for a “common defence” it seems highly likely that, one way or another, Europe will eventually be manoeuvred into a war of aggression for its own aggrandisement or at the behest of the Empire of Chaos.

Article 42 does also provide for a permanent structured cooperation between the armed forces of a subset of member states.

As of 2015 this option has not been used, despite calls by prominent leaders such as former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini and former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt for a common defence for the Union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union

hollande-merkel

See: https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/merkel-hollande-road-to-war-roadshow/

Unfortunately, the local elites in Europe are still fighting the last war and appear oblivious to the fact they are currently fanning the flames of war where nobody wins.

The Russians are most dismayed at the re-colonization of western Europe.

Long gone are the days when people like Charles de Gaulle, Helmut Schmidt or François Mitterrand, were in charge of Europe’s future. For all their very real faults, these men were at least real patriots and not just US colonial administrators.

The ‘loss’ of Western Europe is far more concerning for the Russians than the fact that ex-Soviet colonies in Eastern Europe are now under US colonial administration.

If the AngloZionist ‘deep state’ is really delusional enough to trigger a war with Russia, in Europe or elsewhere, the narcissistic and hedonistic West, drunk on its own propaganda and hubris, will discover a level of violence and warfare it cannot even imagine and if that only affected those responsible for these reckless and suicidal policies it would be great.

But the problem is, of course, that many millions of us, simple, regular people, will suffer and die as a consequence of our collective failure to prevent that outcome. I hope and pray that my repeated warnings will at least contribute to what I hope is a growing realization that this folly has to be immediately stopped and that sanity must return to politics.

How Russia is preparing for WWIII
The Saker – 26 May 2016

http://thesaker.is/how-russia-is-preparing-for-wwiii/

A long time ago Russia had to respond to provocations by fighting land battles on her own territory, then launching a counter-invasion; but this is no longer necessary.

Russia’s new weapons make retaliation instant, undetectable, unstoppable and perfectly lethal.

Thus, if tomorrow a war were to break out between the US and Russia, it is guaranteed that the US would be obliterated.

At a minimum, there would no longer be an electric grid, no Internet, no oil and gas pipelines, no interstate highway system, no air transportation or GPS-based navigation. Financial centers would lie in ruins.

Government at every level would cease to function. US armed forces, stationed all around the globe, would no longer be resupplied.

At a maximum, the entire landmass of the US would be covered by a layer of radioactive ash.

We tell you this not to be alarmist, but because, based on everything we know, we are ourselves alarmed.

If attacked, Russia will not back down; she will retaliate, and she will utterly annihilate the United States.

A Russian warning
The Saker – 01 June 2016

http://thesaker.is/a-russian-warning/

In demographic terms Europe is slowly dying.

In economic terms the European welfare states are slowly imploding because the local elites have sacrificed their industrial economies to build their fraudulent socialist paradises based upon Ponzi Finance.

A Ponzi scheme (also a Ponzi game or a Ponzi) is a fraudulent investment operation where the operator, an individual or organization, pays returns to its investors from new capital paid to the operators by new investors, rather than from profit earned through legitimate sources.

Operators of Ponzi schemes usually entice new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

In political terms the democratic deficit in Europe suggests the local elites are slowly trying to transition their socialist paradises [back] into feudal states.

The big risk is the hollowed out economies of Europe may force the local elites to choose between going out with a nuclear bang or a conventional whimper.

FOR the first time since the industrial revolution, fewer than 10% of American workers are now employed in manufacturing. And since perhaps half of the workers in a typical manufacturing firm are involved in service-type jobs, such as design, distribution and financial planning, the true share of workers making things you can drop on your toe may be only 5%.

Industrial metamorphosis

Industrial metamorphosis
The Economist – 29 Sept 2005

http://www.economist.com/node/4462685

Their current recklessness suggests they are willing to go out with a nuclear bang.

Advertisements
Gallery | This entry was posted in Economics, History. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s