Chicago Influenza 1918

What have the experts forgotten in the last 100 years?

Stated differently:

Have the experts learnt from the Chicago Influenza Epidemic of 1918?

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/52/mode/1up

Don’t live in the dark.

Don’t shut the sunshine out of your home.

Don’t exclude the fresh air.

Don’t fail to keep clean.

Don’t go into crowded places.

Don’t associate with people who sneeze and cough in your presence.

Don’t use common towels.

Don’t fail to practice what you preach.

Don’t overtax your physical powers.
Cut out evening entertainments.
Be in bed by ten o’clock.
Get nine hours sleep.

Don’t fail to sleep with every window in your bedroom open.

Don’t fail to call your doctor for yourself or any member of your family at the first sign of illness. Better be safe than sorry.

Don’t allow your home to become damp, chilly or uncomfortable.
See to it that it is kept at a temperature of at least 68 to 70 degrees all the time.

Don’t fail, if possible, to walk to your work in the morning and to your home at night. The open air exercise will be of decided benefit.

A Report on an Epidemic of Influenza in the City of Chicago in the Fall of 1918
John Dill Robertson – Department of Health – City of Chicago – 1918

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/53/mode/1up

Have the experts remembered natural variability?

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/n10/mode/1up

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/n11/mode/1up

Have the experts established a baseline against which they can be judged?

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/n17/mode/1up

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/n18/mode/1up

Have the experts established whether this time is different?

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/page/32/mode/1up

Anyone wishing to learn more should consult the original 1918 report.

https://archive.org/details/reportonepidemic00robe/mode/1up

https://archive.org/download/reportonepidemic00robe/reportonepidemic00robe.pdf

Feelin’ Stronger Every Day – Leonid & Friends (Chicago cover)

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7 Responses to Chicago Influenza 1918

  1. malagabay says:

    The experts are predicting COVID-19 daily deaths will peak in late May in the UK and early June in the USA.

    “The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.”

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    The predicted peak death rates exceed the 1918 Chicago peak.

    Only time will tell if these predictions are correct.

    I have my doubts as we’re heading into the NH spring and summer.

    On the other hand:

    There are a lot more senior citizens this time around.

    + + + Update 27 March 2020 + + +

    Who would have guessed?

    Prof Who Predicted 500K UK Deaths
    Now Says Under 20K Will Die, Peak In Two Weeks

    Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson – who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

    Zero Hedge – Tyler Durden – Friday 27 March 2020
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/prof-who-predicted-500k-deaths-uk-has-startling-change-heart-now-predicts-under-20k-two-week

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