It’s not always clear which pathogen is responsible for a patient’s illness because an individual hosts many pathogens.
Diagnosis is further complicated when two [or more] pathogens interact.
The human respiratory tract hosts a community of viruses that cocirculate in time and space, and as such it forms an ecological niche.
Shared niches are expected to facilitate interspecific interactions which may lead to linked population dynamics among distinct pathogen species.
In the context of respiratory infections, a well-known example is the coseasonality of influenza and pneumococcus, driven by an enhanced susceptibility to secondary bacterial colonization subsequent to influenza infection.
Virus–Virus Interactions Impact the Population Dynamics of Influenza and the Common Cold – Sema Nickbakhsh, Colette Mair, Louise Matthews, Richard Reeve, Paul C. D. Johnson, Fiona Thorburn, Beatrix von Wissmann, Arlene Reynolds, James McMenamin, Rory N. Gunson, and Pablo R. Murcia – PNAS December 26, 2019 116 (52)
Testing positive for Corona Virus 2019 doesn’t demonstrate Corona Virus 2019 is the cause of any illness an individual may be experiencing.
Testing positive for Corona Virus 2019 doesn’t demonstrate an individual is currently ill, was ill in the past, or will be ill in the future.
Stunning insights into the Corona-panic by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg.
OVALmedia – 13 March 2020
Wolfgang Wodarg says:
The corona hype is not based on any extraordinary public health danger.
However, it causes considerable damage to our freedom and personal rights through frivolous and unjustified quarantine measures and restrictions.
The images in the media are frightening and the traffic in China’s cities seems to be regulated by the clinical thermometer.
Evidence-based epidemiological assessment is drowning in the mainstream of fear mongers in labs, media, and ministries.
According to Wolfgang Wodarg: We are currently not measuring the incidence of coronavirus diseases, but the activity of the specialists searching for them.
We have experienced similar alarmist actions by virologists in the last two decades.
WHO’s “swine flu pandemic” was in fact one of the mildest flu waves in history and it is not only migratory birds that are still waiting for “birds flu”.
Many institutions that are now again alerting us to the need for caution have let us down and failed us on several occasions.
Far too often, they are institutionally corrupted by secondary interests from business and/or politics.
If we do not want to chase frivolous panic messages, but rather to responsibly assess the risk of a spreading infection, we must use solid epidemiological methodology.
This includes looking at the “normal”, the baseline, before you can speak of anything exceptional.
Until now, hardly anyone has paid attention to corona viruses.
For example, in the annual reports of the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) they are only marginally mentioned because there was SARS in China in 2002 and because since 2012 some transmissions from dromedaries to humans have been observed in Arabia (MERS).
There is nothing about a regularly recurring presence of corona viruses in dogs, cats, pigs, mice, bats and in humans, even in Germany.
However, children’s hospitals are usually well aware, that a considerable proportion of the often severe viral pneumonia is also regularly caused or accompanied by corona viruses worldwide.
In view of the well-known fact that in every “flu wave” 7-15% of acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) are coming along with coronaviruses, the case numbers that are now continuously added up are still completely within the normal range.
About one per thousand infected are expected to die during flu seasons.
By selective application of PCR-tests – for example, only in clinics and medical outpatient clinics – this rate can easily be pushed up to frightening levels, because those, who need help there are usually worse off than those, who are recovering at home.
The role of such s selection bias seems to be neglected in China and elsewhere.
Since the turn of the year, the focus of the public, of science and of health authorities has suddenly narrowed to some kind of blindness.
Some doctors in Wuhan (12 million inhabitants) succeeded in attracting worldwide attention with initially less than 50 cases and some deaths in their clinic, in which they had identified corona viruses as the pathogen.
The colourful maps that are now being shown to us on paper or screens are impressive, but they usually have less to do with disease than with the activity of skilled virologists and crowds of sensationalist reporters.
We are currently not measuring the incidence of coronavirus diseases, but the activity of the specialists searching for them.
However, it is better not to be tested for corona viruses.
Even with a slight “flu-like” infection the risk of coronavirus detection would be 7% – 15% .
This is, what a prospective monitoring in Scotland (from 2005 to 2013) may teach us.
The scope, the possible hits and the significance of the new tests are not jet validated.
Wolfgang Wodarg – CORONA-PANIC beenden!
Wolfgang Wodarg (1947) is a German physician and politician for SPD.
As chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Health Committee Wodarg co-signed a proposed resolution on December 18, 2009, which was briefly discussed in January 2010 in an emergency debate and he has called for an inquiry into alleged undue influence exerted by pharmaceutical companies on the World Health Organization’s global H1N1 flu campaign.
But, as always:
If you enjoy panicking then run around like Mike The Headless Chicken.
Mike the Headless Chicken (April 20, 1945 – March 17, 1947), also known as Miracle Mike, was a Wyandotte chicken that lived for 18 months after his head had been cut off.
Although the story was thought by many to be a hoax, the bird’s owner took him to the University of Utah in Salt Lake City to establish the facts.
Mike the Headless Chicken Festival – Fruita, CO – May 29th and 30th 2020
The City of Fruita is a Home Rule Municipality located in western Mesa County, Colorado, United States.
Fruita is known for Mike the Headless Chicken, a chicken who lived for 18 months after his head was cut off.
Lloyd Olsen, the remover of Mike’s head, continued to give him food and water with an eye dropper. He grew to be almost 8 lb (3.6 kg). Mike went on to tour the country as a side show.
A festival in his honor is held each May in Fruita.
At least Mike had an excuse!