The Ice Age is Coming

The Ice Age is Coming

In 2003 21st Century magazine published an article entitled The Ice Age is Coming by Zbigniew Jaworowski which provides plenty of food for thought and some delicious references for those interested in Climate Data Morphology.

In fact, the recent climate developments are not something unusual; they reflect a natural course of planetary events.

From time immemorial, alternate warm and cold cycles have followed each other, with a periodicity ranging from tens of millions to several years.

The cycles were most probably dependent on the extraterrestrial changes occurring in the Sun and in the Sun’s neighborhood.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

Zbigniew Jaworowski was chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (1981–82).

He was a principal investigator of three research projects of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and of four research projects of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

He has held posts with the Centre d’Etude Nucleaires near Paris; the Biophysical Group of the Institute of Physics, University of Oslo; the Norwegian Polar Research Institute and the National Institute for Polar Research in Tokyo.

Jaworowski was unimpressed with “the spiritual leader of the global warming prophets, Dr. Stephen H. Schneider” because Schneider had peddled the 1970s atmospheric aerosol ice age scare.

Just a few years earlier, these very same climatologists had professed that industrial pollution would bring about a new Ice Age.

In 1971, the spiritual leader of the global warming prophets, Dr. Stephen H. Schneider from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, claimed that this pollution would soon reduce the global temperature by 3.5°C.

His remarks were followed by more official statements from the National Science Board of the U.S. National Science Foundation,

”. . . [T]he the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end . . . leading into the next glacial age.”

In 1974, the board observed,

“During the last 20 to 30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade.”

No matter what happens, catastrophic warming or catastrophic cooling, somehow the blame always falls upon “sinful” human beings and their civilization – which is allegedly hostile and alien to the planet.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed.

It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth.

Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content.

An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K.

If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate
S I Rasool1 and S H Schneider
Science 9 July 1971- Vol. 173 – No. 3992 – pp. 138-141

Schneider retuned the compliment by stating “Jaworowski is an over-the-top contrarian who is bending “science””.

Jaworowski is perhaps even more contrarian than most, claiming that he can prove the climate is going to get colder through his work excavating glaciers on six different continents, which he says indicates what we should really be worrying about is “The approaching new Ice Age…”.

Despite it being obvious to many that Jaworowski is an over-the-top contrarian who is bending “science” to reach particular conclusions, he was invited to testify before the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

He did so on March 19, 2004, presenting a speech titled “Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2,” in which he said the IPCC’s assumption that CO2 levels in the pre-industrial period were low is incorrect, and the IPCC projections should therefore be thrown out.

And we wonder where the Bush Administration gets its distorted views!

Climate Science: Contrarians – Stephen Schneider

Stephen Henry Schneider (February 11, 1945 – July 19, 2010) was Professor of Environmental Biology and Global Change at Stanford University, a Co-Director at the Center for Environment Science and Policy of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Senior Fellow in the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

Schneider served as a consultant to federal agencies and White House staff in the Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations.

Jaworowski viewed water as the most important greenhouse gas with CO2 contributing “only 3 percent to the total greenhouse effect” and that the “manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent.”

Without the greenhouse effect, the average near-surface air temperature would be –18°C, and not +15°C, as it is now.

The most important among these “greenhouse gases” is water vapor, which is responsible for about 96 to 99 percent of the greenhouse effect.

Among the other greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFCs, N2O, and O3), the most important is CO2, which contributes only 3 percent to the total greenhouse effect.

The manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

What is striking in this IPCC report, is that water was not even mentioned in any of its eight tables comparing the greenhouse effect of different atmospheric components!

If the corresponding values for water had been presented in these tables, the unimportance of the contribution from CO2 produced by man, in the thermal balance of the atmosphere, would have been very clear.

If CO2 were the only greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, it would contribute about 22 percent of the present greenhouse effect.

However, the real green- house effect of CO2 is much less, because of the overlapping of strong 15 mm absorption lines, and the rotational band of H2O in the 12 mm to 18 mm spectral region.

Detailed analysis performed for the summer atmosphere in the middle latitudes indicates that, to the total greenhouse effect of 342 watts/m, water vapor (continuum and discrete absorption lines) contributes 330 W/m2 – that is, 96.5 percent – and CO2 contributes 12 W/m2 – that is, 3 percent.

Other studies, taking into account water vapor, liquid water, and convection heat transport, estimate the CO2 contribution as 1 to 5 percent of the total greenhouse effect.

The remaining greenhouse gases are of marginal importance.

Annual Emissions of Man-Made CO2 and Temperature Changes

Figure 3: Annual Emissions of Man-Made CO2 and Temperature Changes

The 40-year long period of cooling of the global atmosphere between 1938 and 1976 occurred when about 75 percent of the total mass of man-made CO2 was released into the atmosphere.

Annual emissions of anthropogenic CO2 (light line) are plotted against temperature changes near the Earth´s surface (heavy line).

The Global Warming Folly – 1999 – Zbigniew Jaworowski

After reviewing station data from Antarctica Jaworowski rhetorically asked “what’s the connection between CO2 and temperature at the South Pole?” before responding “either cooling or no correlation”.

South Pole Amundsen-Scott

What the Stations Say – John L. Daly

Jaworowski thought icehouse conditions on Earth were associated with our passage through the spiral arms of the Milky Way and the associated fluctuation in cosmic ray levels.

During the Phanerozoic (the past 545 million years), the Earth passed through eight great climate cycles, each lasting 50 to 90 million years.

Four of them (“Icehouses”) were about 4°C colder than the four warmer ones (“Greenhouses”).

These long cycles were likely caused by passages of our Solar System through the spiral arms of the Milky Way.

On its way, the Solar System passed through areas of intensive star creation, with frequent explosions of novas and supernovas.

In these regions, the intensity of galactic cosmic radiation reaching the Earth is up to 100 times higher than average.

The higher level of cosmic radiation in the Earth’s troposphere causes greater formation of clouds, which reflect the incoming solar radiation back into space.

This results in a cooler climate (see below).

Then the Solar System travels to quieter areas where cosmic radiation is fainter, fewer clouds are formed in our troposphere, and the climate warms.

Upon these enormously long climate cycles, counting tens of millions years each (Figure 1), are superimposed shorter cycles, which strengthen or weaken the long ones.

During the past million years, there were 8 to 10 Ice Ages, each only about 100,000 years long, interspersed with short, warm interglacial periods each of about 10,000 years duration.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

Celestial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate
Celestial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate?
N J Shaviv and J Veizer – GSA Today – July 2003

Jaworowski also thought there was nothing unusual about the climate in the 20th century.

Over the past thousand years, multiple 50-year periods have been much warmer that any analogous period in the 20th Century, and the changes have been much more violent than those observed today.

Such are the findings of an analysis of more than 240 publications, performed by a team of CalTech and Harvard University scientists.

In this study, thousands of assay results for the so-called proxy temperature indicators have been examined.

They included historical records; annual growth ring thickness measurements; isotope changes in ice cores, lake sediments, wood, corals, stalagmites, biological fossils, and in cellulose preserved in peat; changes in ocean sediments; glacier ranges; geological bore-hole temperatures; microfauna variations in sediments; forest line movement, and so on.

Similar evidence comes also from more direct measurements of the temperature preserved in the Greenland ice cap (Figure 2).

Temperature Variations for the Past 3,000 Years

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

This view was supported by the satellite Global Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies between 1979 and 2000 that displayed “a series of ups and downs” with “negligible trends over that period” whilst [on the other hand] the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensities [1944-95] were displaying a downward trend.

The ultimate question is whether our climate is becoming warmer because of the slow build-up in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

The answer is not clear, because much of what we know about global climate change in inferred from historical evidence of uncertain quality.

Reliable ground-based measurements by scientific instruments have been made just in this century.

These measure conditions only at the location of each instrument, and they are usually land-based, although 75% of the Earth is covered with water.

We have been able to take precise, direct measurements only in the last four decades, and not until the advent of precision spaceborne instruments in the 1970s were we able to measure global temperatures at a range of altitudes across the entire atmosphere.

Global Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies 1979 - 2000

GHCC scientists have compiled two decades of data showing how atmospheric temperature has behaved over the entire globe.

All matter emits microwave radiation that varies with its temperature, among other factors. Microwave sensors on weather satellites can take more than 60,000 temperature measurements of oxygen in the atmosphere, from the surface to about 10 km (6 mi) altitude.

The story that these measurements tell is more complex than simply saying the Earth is warming or cooling.

Temperatures in the lower troposphere (the portion of the atmosphere where we live) have shown a series of ups and downs since 1979, mostly in a ±0.4oC band, with negligible trends over that period.

This contrasts with surface thermometers that show warming during the same period of time.

The 1997-98 El Nino caused strong lower tropospheric warming in late 1997, and record warmth in February 1998.

Satellite measurements of the lower stratosphere reveal two marked warm periods (as much as 1.5oC warmer), caused by sulfuric acid aerosols deposited in this layer by the eruptions of two large volcanoes.

These two warm periods are superimposed upon a strong cooling trend over the 19-year period that has been attributed to ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere.

In 1997, record low stratospheric temperatures were recorded.

Global Stratospheric Temperature Anomalies

What Microwaves Teach Us about the Atmosphere
Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensities

Downward Trends in the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes during the Past Five Decades
C W Landsea et al – Geographical Research Letters – 1996 – Vol 23 – No 13 – pp 1697-1700

And [strangely enough] evidence presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1990 also indicated there was nothing unusual about the climate in the 20th century.

Temperature Variations at Earth’s Surface

Figure 1: Temperature Variations at Earth’s Surface

The three curves show temperature variations at the Earth’s surface during the last million years (a), the last 10,000 years (b), and the last thousand years (c).

The dotted line represents temperature at the beginning of the 20th century.

The Global Warming Folly – 1999 – Zbigniew Jaworowski

Therefore, it is hardly surprising that Jaworowski was singularly unimpressed when the “hockey stick” curve was “incorporated into the IPCC’s 2001 (TAR) report” and subsequently used to promote the case for the “fatally flawed” Kyoto Protocol.

These studies stand in stark contradiction to the much smaller study, which shows a “hockey stick” curve, with the outstanding high temperature in the 20th Century, and a rather flat and slightly decreasing trend during the rest of the past millennium.

The study, by Mann et al., is in opposition to the multitude of publications supporting the evidence that during the past 1,000 years, the phenomena of Medieval Warming and the Little Ice Age had a global range, and that the contemporary period does not differ from the previous natural climatic changes.

However, the Mann et al. study was incorporated into the IPCC’s 2001 (TAR) report, as a main proof that the 20th Century warming was unprecedented, and it was enthusiastically used by aficionados of the Kyoto Protocol to promote their case.

In their meticulous study, Soon and Baliunas criticized, in passing, the Mann et al. publications for improper calibration of the proxy data, and for statistical and other methodical errors.

More in-depth and crushing criticisms of the work of Mann et al. were presented recently by McIntyre and McKitrick who demonstrated that the conclusions of Mann et al. are based on flawed calculations, incorrect data, and biased selection of the climatic record.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

McIntyre and McKitric

Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series
S McIntyre and R McKitrick
Energy & Environment – 2003 – Vol. 14 – No. 6 – pp. 751-771

The Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in fundamental ways.

But the process used to bring nations together to discuss our joint response to climate change is an important one.

President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change – 11 June 2001

President Vladimir Putin cast new doubts Friday on Moscow’s willingness to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on curbing greenhouse-gas emissions, saying the pact will fail to achieve its goal of fighting global warming.

“Even 100 percent compliance won’t reverse climate change,” he told a conference organized by the World Economic Forum in Moscow.

Conference Split by Dispute about Greenhouse-gas Curbs
Orlando Sentinel – 4 October 2003

Regarding short term predictions Jaworowski thought a “shift from warm to cool climate might have already started” because Bashkirtsev and Mashnich had predicted “the minimum of the secular cycle of solar activity will occur between 2021 and 2026”.

Similarly, as the study of Friis-Christensen and Lassen shows, observations in Russia established a very high correlation between the average power of the solar activity cycles (of 10 years to 11.5 years duration) and the surface air temperature, and “leave little room for anthropogenic impact on the Earth’s climate.”

Bashkirtsev and Mashnich, Russian physicists from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Irkutsk, found that between 1882 and 2000, the temperature response of the atmospheric air lagged behind the sunspot cycles by approximately 3 years in Irkutsk, and by 2 years over the entire globe.

They found that the lowest temperatures in the early 1900s corresponded to the lowest solar activity, and that other temperature variations, until the end of the century, followed the fluctuations of solar activity.

The current sunspot cycle is weaker than the preceding cycles, and the next two cycles will be even weaker.

Bashkirtsev and Mishnich expect that the minimum of the secular cycle of solar activity will occur between 2021 and 2026, which will result in the minimum global temperature of the surface air.

The shift from warm to cool climate might have already started.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

The data series of the Wolf numbers and surface air temperature over Irkutsk and the entire globe from 1882 to date has been analyzed.

The trends of the local (Irkutsk) and global (the entire Earth) temperatures follow the trend of solar activity.

A global fall of the surface temperature in the coming 25 years is predicted based on close solar–terrestrial relations and on an anticipated decrease in solar activity by 2025.

Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future? – 2002 – V S Bashkirtsev and G P Mashnich
Institute of Solar–Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Division, Russian Academy of Sciences

Bashkirtsev and Mashnich suggested [both] Irkutsk and Global temperatures follow the trend of solar activity and Jaworowski’s cooling prediction is currently supported by Berkeley Earth which is reporting a mean rate of change for Irkutsk [since 1990] of minus 3.26 °C per century.

The average annual air temperature in Irkutsk, which correlates well with the average annual global temperature of the surface air, reached its maximum of +2.3°C in 1997, and then began to drop to +1.2°C in 1998, to +0.7°C in 1999, and to +0.4°C in 2000.

The Ice Age is Coming – Zbigniew Jaworowski – Winter 2003-2004 21st Century

Berkeley Earth – Irkutsk

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5 Responses to The Ice Age is Coming

  1. omanuel says:

    Humanity was denied the promise in Francis William Aston’s Noble Lecture of 12 Dec 1922 access to “powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction” by the decision to unite nations [UN] and independent national academies of science [NAS] into an Orwellian Ministry of Consensus Science Truth on 24 Oct 1945:

  2. gymnosperm says:

    Interesting Jaworowskis’ estimations of the greenhouse effect of total CO2 and the human component are so low.

    “CO2, which contributes only 3 percent to the total greenhouse effect.
    The manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent.”

    Current CO2 is about 10% of current greenhouse gasses including water and the human component is about 3%.

    Offsetting this is the current saturation of CO2 bands of at least 50%,

    Deeply indebted to Gavin Schmidt for the graphic above, although he notably omits that the pink areas (1xCO2) is currently SATURATED.

    Reckon that reduces the human component to 1.5%. Oh, and about half of the “greenhouse effect” is actually from the top down in the form of near IR solar isolation resonating with water in bands where CO2 is insignificant,

    Ok, .75%. Then again, greenhouse gasses do not resonate by volume, they do it by molecule. CO2 is more than twice as heavy as water and for every given volume there will be twice as many molecules of water…


    Sorry, a long winded way of saying I pretty much agree with Jaworowski.

  3. Pingback: Antarctic Guide to the First Millennium | MalagaBay

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